
Trends in Energy, Oil, Food and Water from "Zapata" George Blake
Most "experts" suggest the world could sustain about two billion people.
There are over six billion people and its rising faster
than technology can provide the energy (BTUs) for:
- People: BTU's can be measured in calories from food and that comes from farming, which requires machinery which runs on fuels that are in short supply.
- Farming: someday all the tractors of the world may run on bio-fuels, electricity or hydrogen fuel cells. For the past 100 years, they've run on fossil fuels and there simply isn't enough fuel to continue to produce the food required to feed over six billion people, let alone 10 or 15 billion as forecast by the many health agencies and world governments.
The result is going to be skyrocketing food prices, shortages, rationing and eventually, civil strife leading to civil war and mass famine (starvation) on a global scale. Think of the
Irish potato famine where 25 percent of the Irish population died or about one million people.
As a result: "The population of Ireland continued to fall for 70 years, stabilizing at half the level prior to the famine. This long-term decline ended in the west of the country only in 2006, over 160 years after the famine struck."
Now translate that to
today's population figures where, prior to the invention of planting and harvesting machinery, the agricultural tools man used supported less than one billion people (around 1800) and disease easily wiped out 10 to 50 percent of nations almost overnight. Remember, that if 5 billion people were to die off in a horrific famine, there are probably going to be a lot of pandemic diseases like cholera and diphtheria taking place. Under a worst case scenario, its highly possible less than 500 million people survive to 2020 or 2030. Under a best case where some nations retain fossil fuels required to operate their machinery to produce food, you can bet their neighbors will be coming over their borders by the thousands (?millions?) in all-out war to take their food away. Border clashes, civil war and international wars are never good for attempts to grow crops to feed millions and we're back to the worst-case scenario.
- While famine, war and disease is taking its toll, it will be increasingly difficult to import oil or export products of any type as we do today. Those few nations not at war are likely to become isolated. Medical supplies and agencies that currently run disease and famine control programs will be unable to provide any relief. Industries that package foods or produce parts for tractors, cars, housing, rail, shipping, road and airline maintenance will
also grind to a stop. Think '1800' if we are lucky or potentially, the same level of technology of the
1400s when plagues were common and entire nations could lose more than half of their populations in the blink of an eye.
You might say I am a pessimist and I hope you're right, except I
am not the only one who sees this realistic future. From
Religious people crying 'the end is near' to the experts at the
United Nations, from world leaders struggling to provide food
during a national crisis, such as in Myanmar or the Sudan.
Let's throw a monkey wrench in the deal: scientists estimate that
if a large ice shelf in Greenland drops off, sea levels are going to rise
20 feet, which would paralyze Manhattan and wipe out coastal cities and
harbors around the world. Think its too far fetched? HA! Think again.
Remember, just when you thought it was bad, it can get worse: much worse. That
is the way Mother Nature takes care of herself and believe it, she's sick and
tired of taking care of us.
Money won't solve a nation's problems. Bahrain is one of the
richest nations on Earth; a banking center for the Middle East
and loaded with Petro Dollars, yet this rich nation is
contracting with nations in Southeast Asia to provide them with
rice. Saudi Arabia, a nation of pure desert sand, relies on
desalinization plants to provide water for its cities and
millions of people. Where are they going to get the membranes
required to operate desalinization plants? Fortunately, hot,
hungry, thirsty humans never make war on each other and if you
believe that, you haven't watched the news for 10,000 years.
It would be nice to believe that with all of the resources in the U.S., along
with a resource rich neighbor like Canada, that
the U.S. will make it through just fine. You think we have border crossings from Mexico now? Wait until that hot, arid nation can't feed its poor and see how it goes. From Southern California (in fact all of California) through Texas and right up through the Midwest, drought is already taking a toll on crop production. Throw in a fuel crisis and the situation becomes completely unmanageable.
Think the skyrocketing oil prices are a 'Ploy' by the oil companies to rake in more profits? Think again.
I spent my lifetime in the oil industry. If the Arabs had more oil, they'd be selling it. They're not. Peak oil has come and gone and production is winding down. Please take a moment to listen to the radio interview at the ContraryInvestorCafe on our media link before you suggest that I am off base or exaggerating these figures. Consider past history's lessons when food has become short or disease has expanded across national boundaries or global warfare, fighting for limited resources, becomes a way of life for billions and billions of people.
But wait, I'm not finished. You already know about the droughts and hurricanes global warming has brought to our doorstep. Now consider the deforestation of the Amazon and other lush regions, turning the Earth into a big, giant desert. The Maps showing expansion of deserts to manmade erosion are clear. We're in trouble folks.
Hang on, there's still more bad news: this isn't going to take 20 or 30 or 50 years. Its happening right now. Rice is being rationed in some California locations. A 100 weight bushel of wheat went from $12 to $50 in one week. Diesel is now over $5.00 a gallon at many gas stations and you haven't heard the worst news yet.
In about two weeks (mid June, 2008) a Counsel reports to the Saudi family and
controls Saudi oil is going to tighten down supplies even further. They are doing this to protect their own supply of crude oil for their own use. They need it and they know production is shrinking. What's that going to do to the global supplies?
And don't forget this bit of bad news: British Petroleum (BP) just lost 25 percent of their supplies when the Russians put the screws to them on their Joint Venture in Russia. Imagine BP, the global giant in oil losing supplies from Russia and the Saudis almost overnight. Think it will take years for gas at the pump to hit $10 a gallon? It could easily happen before the end of the year and again, that will send food prices through the roof.
I do apologize for being the bearer of bad news, but I promise to wrap it up with this cheery thought: when you have a drought and dwindling energy supplies, manufacturing slows to a crawl. Wind turbine manufacturing is already far behind demand. New desalinization plants are going to soon be difficult, if not impossible to obtain and if you could get one, how are you going to power it up to get fresh water?
Folks, I hate to say it, but all this talk about global warming and deserts and shrinking ice caps, while likely to be quite true, doesn't paint the realistic picture of what is actually happening and what is coming in the next few years, if not months.
I want you to add up the score based on what I've described on this page alone and see if you can figure out who is going to win the game; Mother Nature, that's who, and as a NASA Physicist who taught one of my associates about wind power is famous for saying, "Nature wants to kill you.". It would be nice if we didn't help her out, but at this point, she doesn't need much assistance. Its unfolding much faster than we can solve it with technology.
SOLUTION: quite honestly, I think its too late, but there are a few optimistic souls out there who won't give up until their dead, so here's a few ways we might slow down the famine and disease and increase crop yields using what we do have:
- First, we need to deploy renewable energy programs as fast
and as furiously as possible. This isn't just about unplugging
from OPEC Oil. That's not the issue anymore. We need energy that
simply isn't available from conventional fuels anymore. Even Mexico, our
oil and natural gas rich neighbor is starting to hit the bottom of their reserves and
are scrambling for new revenue and energy sources. The Folks at
Gold Pact Power have been trying to
contact one of their industrial leaders, "Slim", who is considered by many to
be the richest man on Earth, but like many leaders, Slim is too busy trying to save his empire
to return a call. GPP tried to contact Groupo Poma, another big Latin American industrial firm, to
set up renewable energy projects in their nation, as well as surrounding nations, but unfortunately, Mr. Poma is too busy watching his
hotel empire go down the tubes due to skyrocketing energy costs and dwindling tourism.
Currently GPP is trying to contact the
President of Costa Rica to develop a renewable fuel for the airline industry in that nation,
as well as the King of Morocco, Saudi leaders, 60 Mayors in China,
develop projects for the Military in Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, Thailand, the Philippines,
Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Peru, Bolivia, Cameroon, Nigeria, Niger, Mali, Mauritania, Capo Verde, Spain,
France, Libya, Guyana and dozens of other nations.
They're trying to contact the bankers in Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Abu Dhabi and
Bahrain with solutions that can be implemented quickly, turning deserts into
lush growing regions, providing power for fresh water, export fuel products that
are renewable and scrubbing the atmosphere of CO2 - the killer that is causing
global warming. The team at GPP is pretty sharp. They have
solutions based on current technology that work within global budget constraints. They've been
engineering utility grade power systems for over 20 years, working with teams from firms like Edison, NASA< AC Delco, the U.S. Air Force, GE Wind,
U.S. Banks and Educational Institutions, Bechtel, Westinghouse and others...
Yet despite all that experience, nobody seems to be paying attention and GPP isn't alone. Many firms have ideas that can be put into place
quickly, but simply lack the funding to complete R&D and go into manufacturing today. That was the idea behind BTUBank which
is currently being considered by some Bahrainian Financial Group. Wish them luck.
Its not that the money to complete these projects doesn't exist
or that we're short on raw materials to get it done quickly. If
everyone works together, we could probably (maybe - if I were an
optimist, which sadly, I am not) get it done on time. The fact
is the learning curve for the politicians and bankers is just
too steep to comprehend the rapid funding and construction of a
series of complex infrastructure builds that include Wind Farms,
Bio-fuels, Hydrogen fuels we can have today and desalinization
plants that can cure droughts before its too late. Soon we
won't have sufficient land to grow the crops we need to feed the
people of the planet we all share or crops to feed Bio-fuel
facilities required to generate the power we need to drive the
machinery. Nations are dying for answers and GPP has a fistful of them,
ready to go; and nobody is smart enough to return a call. The
few that do are old buzzards like I am and just don't seem
capable of understanding complex solutions. I may be old, but
I'm smart enough to recognize that its going to take more than
an inadequate (silly is the word) Department
of Energy Report promoting 20% Wind Power by 2030 to
solve the problem. Its going to take more than T. Boone Pickens
and his glorified "Biggest Wind Farm on Earth" circus to fix the
problems in Texas.
A few smart nations have called GPP and are moving closer to getting on the right track by Dramatically Accelerating their Renewable Energy Portfolio Standards,
put in place through new national laws GPP worked out with their Legislatures and demanded by their people,
and then stalled by their Executive Branch: if the stakes weren't so high
and the consequences so tragic and horrific, it would be comical.
Take this as a classic example: because a Kansas utility wants new coal-fired plants (bad) and
the people and Governor told them "NO!" they utility has decided to refuse
to allow any new wind farms to go on their transmission lines. They aren't saying this directly. Instead, they're
stalling for time, sending wind farm developers down blind alleys during initial development
and holding the people of Kansas, their own friends and neighbors, hostage so they can crowbar them
into allowing them to put more gross polluting coal-fired plants in a State that doesn't want them.
How's that for being "neighborly' or 'ethical' or 'in touch with the reality' of the global situation?
I'll tell you what it is: typical! That's what!
Even if a few nations and utility companies see the light, its
going to take a lot more than 1 or 2 or 10 nations moving forward rapidly
to lick this problem. Everybody on Earth, every man, woman and child, every
investor, politician, school teacher and parent behind the wheel of a gas guzzling
SUV is going to have to work together and pronto! or we're all doomed. If there was ever a time in history where a joint
effort by every nation of our Global Village was required, now
is the time to
place that call.
Instead, these groups are throwing their money into simple band-aid solutions, primarily wind farm projects they can understand, rather than an effective,
well-engineered, comprehensive global solution that might actually get the job done.
You can't blame them for sticking with simple plans. Those business models worked in the past. Unfortunately, the
problems are so dire now, those old financial models are obsolete and incapable of resolving problems quickly.
This is what I mean when I say
Technology can't keep up with the required changes.
A more accurate way of putting it is;
Even though GPP has solutions based on current technology
and plans that integrate a variety of proven models
Bankers and Petro Dollars are too slow to recognize it
and provide the required funding to ramp up their projects in time.
And even if the money is made available to firms like GPP to move forward,
Politicians and Planners are too slow to fast-track the permits.
They are too worried about saving some endangered minnow in a creek
to save an entire planet and civilization.
Tree huggers have a place on this planet, God Bless 'em,
but its not in the path of the freight train effort required to save the place.
The learning curve for the folks holding Petro Dollars and the rest of the financial world
is just too steep. GPP solutions are just too far advanced
for them to comprehend.
Many U.S. States have renewable energy portfolio standards that suggest 20
or 30 percent of their power will come from renewable sources by
2020 or 2030 or 2050. They'd better rethink that schedule and
get 80 to 90 percent of their energy from renewable energy
within 1 or 2 years or their doomed. Think they can't do it? Think again:
Last year, GE Wind started a wind farm in Hawaii in January and commissioned it in April. GPP
staff was trained by Edison and GE Wind to fast track exactly these kinds of
projects. But to do that, politicians are going to have to scramble to fast-track permits and
manufacturing is going to have to ramp up production, expand
factories or build new ones before their isn't enough oil and
fuel to drive the bulldozers and cranes required to build
factories (or erect wind turbines).
Second, to accomplish these goals, Investors are going to
have to start NOW and I mean RIGHT NOW by investing in
renewable energy companies that have a realistic game plan. One
of the firms I've checked out that has extremely comprehensive
engineering programs is www.goldpactpower.com Their
team has over 30 years in the utility industry, starting with
conventional fuel generating stations and nuclear power, right
on through wind, bio-fuels, solar hot water, geothermal,
hydrogen fuel and Gold Pact Power Proprietary Fuel (GPP-PF) technologies. Don't just invest in a wind farm;
get a well-rounded program going. Gold Pact Power is a good
place to start. If you're a bank or hedge fund trading platform
that wants to develop a financial institution in your region,
take a look at BTUBank.com
They are related to GPP and can help you develop the structured
funding you're going to need to accelerate your engineering and
construction of new renewable energy systems. If you wait 6
months or 12 months you're going to be too late. Do it now or
pay the price. As they say "He who hesitates is lost." except in
this case, you're dead.
Third if you're a politician or an agency with oversight
authority (like Fish and Game that has a valid place, but can
also stall permits needlessly), whether you work at the national
level or at the local level, you'd better learn to accelerate
(fast-track) the permits required to push renewable energy
projects forward quickly. If you wait a year while you study the
wind or bird migratory patterns you're missing the point. You
don't have a year to waste. More birds die flying into cars and
bedroom windows than wind turbines. Get a clue. Get a wind farm
or a bio-fuel or geothermal program. Add a desalinization plant and a method of
converting waste water into drinking water. Orange County,
California figured it out. You'd better do the same and do it
fast.
Fourth, education is king. The newly trained labor force is
going to be required to get the job done on time. This is another
reason I liked the GPP program: they have a huge focus on occupational
training programs for teens and are related to KCK who has provided
these kinds of programs since 1983. Thinking about a new bond for a school?
Congratulations...its about time. But rather than spending all
that time and money on new buildings, you might want to fix the
schools you have with new classes dedicated to renewable energy
and crop production projects. Teach your inner-city kids to
farm. Stop cutting down trees in our cities, just because the
Police and Department of Homeland Security told you that "they
provide a haven for criminals and homeless people." Seriously,
this is a primary excuse for a policy of wiping out trees in
many neighborhoods and it ought to be a crime of the highest
order to cut down a tree without planting five new ones. Teach
the kids to farm on every square inch of inner-city soil and
plant trees by the dozens and they just might survive with
attempts to till vacant lots. Teach them to erect inexpensive
hot water systems on the roofs of apartment buildings. It is the
most cost-effective change a structure can make towards reducing
the use of fossil fuels. Or get ready for no more hot water,
showers once a week or once a month (assuming you can even get
water to inner-cities when the city water pumps grind to a halt
because of lack of power).
Think this scene doesn't exist in America: are you blind?
Take a look at the Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands for a clue about what is coming.
Currently, its the only region in the U.S. without potable water. That's about to change folks.
Those people pay the highest KWh rates on Earth. The only way they even
survive is because of shipping companies who bring in food and
water by boat. All of that is going to come to a halt in the
near future as well, or at best, be 2 to 5 to 10 to 20 times
more expensive. Read their news articles and you'll get an idea
of what life is like half-way between where America was 10 years
ago (fat and happy) and where the Sudan and Ethiopia and Somalia
is today (thin, starving and wretched). As this global disaster
unfolds, within a few months, or a couple of years at best, your
standard of living without food and water is going to be a lot
closer to Somalia than it will be to the CNMI unless you make a
dramatic jump today, not tomorrow, not next week, not next year
or by 2020. Next year will be too late.
I hope I am wrong. I really do, but history doesn't lie and
those small catastrophes of the last 5 or 10 centuries have
taught us that without fuel, food, water, manufacturing,
mechanized farming and medical facilities, life as we know it
today simply cannot exist. Have you ever wanted to go back in
time? Well, the middle ages, rather the dark ages, complete
with plagues, hand tilled fields, a 40 year life span, and
'romantic' andlelight dinners is right around the corner.
Forget about using light bulbs at night or having sufficient
power for them or the money to pay for the power even if you had
them. The CNMI is being evacuated. Brown outs and black outs
take place every single day. Businesses there are folding right
and left and their people are leaving by the thousands due to
the high cost of KWh. Resources are already tight and are going
to get a lot tighter. Believe it or don't.
I'm old and damn proud of it. I've lived a full life and am grateful to have
lived to witness such a climactic turning point in human evolution. I'm
still scrambling to tell you folks younger than I am what is coming
down the pipe.
Except its not coming....Its already here.

Remember how the Feds responded to Hurricane Katrina?
Imagine their response to a nationwide famine!!!
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View a slide show by BTUBank about the future they see if things don't change fast.

